{"id":2558,"date":"2017-12-01T16:25:00","date_gmt":"2017-12-01T16:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/?p=2558"},"modified":"2020-11-30T23:16:35","modified_gmt":"2020-11-30T23:16:35","slug":"modeling-the-epidemic-of-nonalcoholic-fatty-liver-disease-demonstrates-an-exponential-increase-in-burden-of-disease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/modeling-the-epidemic-of-nonalcoholic-fatty-liver-disease-demonstrates-an-exponential-increase-in-burden-of-disease\/","title":{"rendered":"Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"75\" height=\"100\" src=\"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/AASLD_75x100.png\" alt=\"Journal Cover\" class=\"wp-image-3154\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/28802062\">Estes C, Razavi H, Loomba R, Younossi Z, Sanyal AJ. Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease. Hepatology. 2018 Jan;67(1):123-133. doi: 10.1002\/hep.29466. Epub 2017 Dec 1. PMID: 28802062; PMCID: PMC5767767.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<br>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are highly prevalent in the United States, where they are a growing cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and increasingly an indicator for liver transplantation. A Markov model was used to forecast NAFLD disease progression. Incidence of NAFLD was based on historical and projected changes in adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Assumptions were derived from published literature where available and validated using national surveillance data for incidence of NAFLD-related HCC. Projected changes in NAFLD-related cirrhosis, advanced liver disease, and liver-related mortality were quantified through 2030. Prevalent NAFLD cases are forecasted to increase 21%, from 83.1 million (2015) to 100.9 million (2030), while prevalent NASH cases will increase 63% from 16.52 million to 27.00 million cases. Overall NAFLD prevalence among the adult population (aged =15 years) is projected at 33.5% in 2030, and the median age of the NAFLD population will increase from 50 to 55 years during 2015-2030. In 2015, approximately 20% of NAFLD cases were classified as NASH, increasing to 27% by 2030, a reflection of both disease progression and an aging population. Incidence of decompensated cirrhosis will increase 168% to 105,430 cases by 2030, while incidence of HCC will increase by 137% to 12,240 cases. Liver deaths will increase 178% to an estimated 78,300 deaths in 2030. During 2015-2030, there are projected to be nearly 800,000 excess liver deaths. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CONCLUSION<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With continued high rates of adult obesity and DM along with an aging population, NAFLD-related liver disease and mortality will increase in the United States. Strategies to slow the growth of NAFLD cases and therapeutic options are necessary to mitigate disease burden. (Hepatology 2018;67:123-133).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Countries:<\/strong> United States<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Estes C, Razavi H, Loomba R, Younossi Z, Sanyal AJ. Modeling the epidemic of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease demonstrates an exponential increase in burden of disease. Hepatology. 2018 Jan;67(1):123-133. doi: 10.1002\/hep.29466. Epub 2017 Dec 1. PMID: 28802062; PMCID: PMC5767767. Summary Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are highly prevalent in the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":3479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[12,24],"publication-author":[],"class_list":["post-2558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","tag-modelling","tag-nafld"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2558"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2558\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3372,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2558\/revisions\/3372"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2558"},{"taxonomy":"publication-author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dnc-test.myddns.me\/cda-foundation\/cdafound.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication-author?post=2558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}